Mar. 6, 2009
eMarketer predicts that eCommerce sales should return to the double-digit growth rates seen prior
to last year. The latest time period where online sales were thriving is 2007.
Growth in online sales will come from eCommerce buyers who shift a greater share of their
discretionary spending from physical stores to the Internet.
Especially among affluent online shoppers, pent-up consumer demand should also provide an
additional sales impetus among eTailers.
In less than three years from now, it is expected that online sales growth will begin to dwindle,
resuming another trend seen prior to last year. This will be due to the inevitable maturation of the
online sales channel, as growth in new eCommerce buyers approaches a certain level of saturation.
From 2008 to 2013, retail eCommerce sales are expected to grow at a about a 8.8 percent compound annual
After year-over-year growth rates of 13.3 percent in Q1 and 8.7 percent in Q2, sales grew only 4.6 percent
in Q3 before plummeting almost 5 percent in the important and very busy Q4 holiday season.
When forecasting online sales, eMarketer always benchmarks against the U.S. Department of Commerce.
It estimates that eCommerce sales rose slighly less than 4.7 percent last year, reaching about $133.6
billion in annual sales.
This article was featured on Business 5.0.
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